Evolutionary Dynamics of the Insurgency in Iraq: A Mathematical Model of the Battle for Hearts and Minds

Individuals are not electrons. But in some situations, they behave very much alike. When it comes to many social and political questions, individuals’ complex attitudes and beliefs must be boiled down to a simple yea (“spin up”) or nay (“spin down”). Although human societies, like physical materials, are very complex, some of their properties can be determined by understanding the interactions that occur between individuals (“atoms”). In particular, the spread of a particular political opinion throughout a society can be modeled as the macroscopic manifestation of the myriad exchanges occurring at the local level between individuals and their neighbors. This model can be used to gain a qualitative foothold on the evolution of public opinion in Iraq for or against the U.S.-led occupation. It can also provide a mathematical instantiation of the “oil-spot” strategy proposed by Krepinevich (2005), which in turn could lead to a practical tool for commanders needing to allocate public relations resources in Iraq.